September 21, 2026
Day91 Labs Brief — Issue 008: HR Tech
Headcount is flat, and HR tech revenue is growing anyway. The companies doing best are the ones whose pricing doesn't depend on how many employees their customers have.
1. Indeed: US revenue up 30% with fewer job ads
Evidence tier A — Figures are from Recruit's fiscal Q1 FY2026 results and outlook.
Recruit's US HR Technology revenue grew 30% in fiscal Q1 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2026). It raised the full-year outlook to +18.7% globally and +25.1% in the US. The previous US forecast was +13.6%, and the new one comes alongside an expected 4% decline in US job ads. The guidance assumes 30% growth in US average revenue per job posting, led by Premium Sponsored Jobs.
This is pricing power at work: more revenue per job posting on fewer postings. Recruit is also testing a dynamic Premium Plus tier.
If job-ad spend is in your budget, expect cost per posting to rise even as your hiring volume falls.
Sources
2. Upwork: search referrals fell and the guidance fell with them
Evidence tier B — Q2 figures are from Upwork's release. The prior guide is secondary and should be confirmed against the Q4 2025 release.
Q2 revenue was $191.7M, down 1.7%, and GSV fell 4%. Full-year guidance was cut to $730–750M, citing AI automation and weaker Google search referrals. The shares fell about 20%. In February, Upwork had guided to 6%–8% growth on 2025 revenue of $787.8M. The new range implies a decline of roughly 5% to 7%. Upwork also launched an MCP server so AI agents can find talent on the marketplace.
Upwork lost part of its discovery channel to AI-mediated search. Its response is to get inside the agents.
This is the clearest filing-level evidence so far that search disintermediation hits demand directly. It is the thesis in our proposal, happening in a real company's numbers.
Sources
3. Paylocity: part of next year's margin gain is an accounting change
Evidence tier A — Accounting-life change, margin effect and FY27 guidance are from Paylocity's filed earnings exhibit.
Starting in fiscal 2027 (Jul 2026–Jun 2027), Paylocity will amortize deferred contract costs over 8 years instead of 7. It expects this to add about 120–140 bps to adjusted EBITDA margin, and the change is already in its guidance. FY27 guidance calls for about 8% recurring revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of $690–700M.
Recurring revenue growth slows from 12% to 8%, while part of the margin expansion comes from assuming customers stay longer.
When benchmarking HCM margins against Paylocity, strip out the 120–140 bps first.
Sources
4. Workday: near-term backlog is growing faster than long-term backlog
Evidence tier A — Backlog, EPS and cash-flow figures are from Workday's Q2 FY27 release. Beyond-12-month growth is Day91's calculation.
In fiscal Q2 FY27 (May–Jul 2026), twelve-month subscription backlog was $9.034B, up 14.2%. Total subscription backlog was $27.403B, up 8.0%. GAAP EPS includes a $1.52-per-share tax benefit from an intra-entity IP transfer. Free cash flow was $460M, against $588M a year earlier. By our calculation, backlog beyond 12 months grew only about 5%.
Workday's contracted revenue is getting shorter. Customers are committing for less time.
For enterprise HCM renewals, shorter contracts are available. Workday's own backlog shows it is agreeing to them.
Sources
5. ADP: pay-per-employee pricing meets flat employment
Evidence tier A — Operating metrics and FY27 guidance are from ADP's filed earnings exhibit.
In fiscal Q4 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2026), Employer Services pays per control grew 1%. PEO average worksite employees grew 2% to 775,000. FY27 guidance assumes flat to 1% growth in US pays per control, and PEO margins falling as zero-margin pass-through revenue grows. FY27 revenue growth is guided at 5%–6%.
ADP expects essentially no growth from its customers' headcount, so its growth has to come from new bookings and higher pricing.
Any HR vendor that prices per employee is now tied to AI-driven headcount decisions at its customers.
Sources
6. Fiverr: revenue fell 10% while spend per remaining buyer rose
Evidence tier A — Revenue, buyer, spend and take-rate figures are from Fiverr's 6-K.
Revenue fell 10%. Active buyers fell 21.9% to 2.7M, while spend per buyer rose 15.6% to $368 and take rate edged up to 28.0%.
The buyer base is shrinking fast; the remaining buyers are spending more.
Separate buyer-count movement from spend per buyer when assessing marketplace health; the revenue line alone hides the opposing trends.
Sources
7. Paycom: part of the EPS beat comes from a smaller share count
Evidence tier B — Repurchase figures are from Paycom's Q2 release. Borrowing and balance-sheet figures are secondary and need confirmation in the 10-Q.
Paycom bought back 2.57M shares for $345.9M in Q2. It also borrowed $900M, and shares outstanding fell about 19% since year-end.
Part of the EPS beat comes from the smaller share count.
When benchmarking Paycom's EPS growth, separate operating improvement from the effect of buybacks and confirm the borrowing in the 10-Q.
Sources
8. Workday reports agent adoption, not agent revenue
Evidence tier A — Customer adoption count and quarter-over-quarter growth are from Workday's Q2 FY27 release.
More than 5,500 customers use at least one Workday agent, up more than 35% quarter over quarter. Workday reports a customer count, not revenue.
The disclosed adoption metric establishes reach but does not show how much customers pay or whether agents expand contract value.
Do not treat an agent customer count as AI revenue. Ask for paid adoption, contract value or expansion before using it as a commercial benchmark.
Sources
9. Dayforce is no longer public
Evidence tier A — Acquisition price, close date and delisting are from Thoma Bravo's announcement.
Thoma Bravo completed its roughly $12.3B acquisition at $70 a share on February 4, 2026, and Dayforce was delisted.
There is one fewer public HCM comparable.
Remove Dayforce from current public-company benchmark sets and treat its last public metrics as historical rather than live market evidence.
Sources
10. Watch: Paychex reports fiscal Q1 FY27 on 23 September
Evidence tier A — Reporting date and timing are from Paychex's company announcement.
Paychex reports fiscal Q1 FY27 (Jun–Aug 2026) on 23 Sept 2026, before the market opens.
This is the next scheduled public read on payroll demand and pays-per-employee exposure after a quarter of flat employment signals.
Add the release to the watchlist and compare payroll-client volume, pricing and margin guidance with ADP's flat-to-1% pays-per-control outlook.
Sources
Every claim links to its source. Spotted something wrong? It will be fixed and logged on the corrections page. Also published on Beehiiv.